Can the UK avoid a house price crash? by Finance News Bulletin

Published: 23/09/07

It's been a rollercoaster week for investors, but the possessions marketplace should survive the credit crunch The Northern Rock crisis has dented confidence in the housing marketplace but most analysts still predict a soft hallway rather than a crashPOLL: How will the Northern Rock saga affect the UK bank speed Where will it be at the end of 2007

A senior store boss has told the Daily Mail's Lucy Farndon that house prices will fall 50% Don't fail to spot: Lucy Farndon's columnSigns of a slowdown have been on the horizon since early summer, extended before 'credit crunch' and 'subprime mortgages' became part of the standard dinner social gathering lexiconIn the four weeks to early September - just in front of the Northern Rock turmoil - asking prices of homes on sale in England and Wales were already plummetingAccording to property website Rightmove

couk, asking prices dropped by 31% in Yorkshire and Humberside over this one-month era, by 33% in the South-east, and by 4

1% in the South-westEven in Greater London, where the marketplace has been red-hot, asking prices in late August and near the beginning September dropped 25%'This month 121,000 properties came on to the marketplace - the lowest shape for a September since 2004,' explains Miles Shipside, commercial director of Rightmove

He says this drop in commerce will put a brake on the market but it does not mean that prices will drop significantlyWhich is not to speak that a tumble is impossible Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at the Royal organization of Chartered Surveyors said there is still a 10% chance of sheer falls although a 12 to 15-month period of stagnation is the most probable scenarioOn the upside, there's no deluge of sellers looking to bail out quickly because of financial suffering, Mr Shipside adds

'It appears to be quite the opposite - possible sellers are choosing to watch and wait while doubt reigns'Hometrack, a business consultancy that issues a journal price index for England and Wales, based on data from 3,600 land agents, also points to a hold up - but not a catastrophic oneJust like Rightmove, Hometrack records small price waterfall in Yorkshire, Northern England and the South-west, with minor increases elsewhere On standard, prices were static during August because of increased affordability pressures and because buyers became more careful

Analysts say the market will escape a crash if this slowdown continues in an arranged fashion and there is no crisis of confidence most important to panic selling of homesBut will the Northern Rock affair tilt that slowing market into a full-blown cost crash 'Not at all,' says Richard Donnell, Hometrack's manager of research'There will be a further slowdown in the figure of transactions - fewer people will move house if not they really have to - and that income fewer buyers and therefore some reduction in prices

But the hold up won't be uniform across the country and some areas will carry on to rise in price,' he predictsMr Donnell's analysis, communal by other economists in the property industry, suggests that two underlying factors will prevent the accommodation market from crashingThe first is that the broader UK economy is still relatively strong and is much more robust than during the last housing collide, in 1990'Sound economic fundamentals and high employment will support home prices,' says Martin Ellis, chief economist at the Halifax store and author of its monthly price directory

Mr Ellis says that the latest official figures confirm that the UK's gross domestic manufactured goods rose 08% between the first and second quarters of 2007, above its longterm standard And he says nationwide employment is still risingThe second factor is that there are more households in the UK than homes available, guaranteeing a continued insist for property

The Home Builders Federation says around 180,000 novel homes are being built across the UK each year But the Government admits that it wants 230,000 novel properties just to keep up with the annual enlargement in the number of households, a trend fuelled by more people living aloneAs far back as 2003, a survey by Kate Barker, then a associate of the Bank of England's monetary rule committee, said this year-on-year shortfall of new homes destined UK house prices had risen by an average of 24% in genuine terms each year since the mid-Seventies - compared with an standard of 1

1% in Europe as a wholeThis shortfall looks set to stay for some time and will continue to keep prices comparatively strongThis is Money is packed with news, advice and tools that can assist you get in front and save moneyBut there are clouds on the prospect

Home Information Packs - the Government's controversial scheme to help buyers by as long as them with an energy assessment and search in order for homes on sale with three or more bedrooms - are making influence Rightmove says there has been a 41% slouch in the number of larger homes put on sale since HIPs became obligatory for these properties on August 1 This has impacted the market in some areas, the website claimsIn some metropolis centres in Northern England there is also a excess of new two-bedroom flats aimed at buy-tolet investors who may now find it difficult to get mortgages as banks tighten up lending system

And pockets of oversupply could lead to lessening prices in these areasThere may also be problems in uber- expensive 'prime' middle London Soaraway prices in these areas are fuelled by buyers operational in the monetary services sectorNow the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors says there is a one-in-five possibility that homes in these areas may fall by 10% next day because of City doubt and reduced bonuses

The Nationwide building society shares that view'A prolonged financial market downturn would be painful given the significance of this sector to economic growth,' admits Fionnuala Earley, Nationwide's chief economist'Such a slump would not only affect investment bankers but would also have unenthusiastic knock-on effects for workers in law, accountancy and other professional services The have an effect on on London property prices could only be unenthusiastic

'Even so, Ms Earley says that prices outside the assets will rise in 2008, albeit at a relatively self-effacing rate of 3% over the yearSo the age of buying a home and sitting back while it soars in value is certainly a thing of the past But things will remain relatively steady so long as home owners resist the lure to panic sell The professional advice is to take a bottomless breath and stay calm

A leading mortgage specialist says anyone buying a home should continue as normal, in spite of recent uncertainty - and that they should opt for a tracker mortgageA tracker has a rate of interest that changes in line with the store of England's base speed, currently set at 575% after five increases in the past year 'Because of the Northern astound crisis and market doubt, it's almost inconceivable that the base speed will rise to 6%: the Bank of England won't want to add to the depression,' explains beam Boulger, senior mortgage spokesman at Charcol

couk, an self-governing broker'This is the silver lining to the credit chomp and the financial uncertainty Our suspicion that interest tax have peaked has actually been strengthened

'Rates should be up to 05% lower in the next few months, so choosing a tracker mortgage rather than a fixed rate will optimise the advantage,' he suggests So does the Northern Rock turmoil have no wider result on the mortgage marketplace 'There's a shortage of confidence about Northern Rock but not about mortgages in general

Anyone wanting to buy a house will simply get a loan from a different lender The market will take on,' he predictsSome mainstream lenders, such as the Norwich & Peterborough building civilization, have reduced the proportion of a possessions value that can be borrowed from 95% to 90%; while other firms, including Abbey and the Halifax, have made small increases on their follower rates for newcustomers 'But the only really big dissimilarity is to the supposed subprime market,' he says, referring to the loans made to mortgage applicants with deprived credit histories

Mr Boulger says: 'subprime lenders are putting up their rates or introducing stricter lending criteria That makes it harder for applicants But known the problems in the US, that may not be such a bad obsession'In a word - No

Only Estate Agents, mortgage lenders, TV possessions programme presenters and recent possessions purchasers are left proverb that house prices won't fall, and fall a long way down They are rather like someone rank on the deck of the Titanic, after it hit the iceberg, shouting - 'don't worry, it won't ever go under' No hesitation the modern day string quartet that played on whilst the Titanic sank would play the subject tune to Location, site, site - and it would be Phil and/or Kirsty shouting - 'put on't worry it will never sink, honest' To pay no attention to all the warning signs and bells rining now would be to commit financial suicide

stay 2 or 3 years and you will pick up a much better house for much less money Be patientThe last 5 rate rises refuge't even fed through the system yet, in some parts of the country reposessions and mortgage defaults are running at 200% compared to 2 years before Those in the know are bailing out, builders advertising their stock piles of land is never a good sign

query is how biased are these so called manufacturing experts It's in their best interest to portray a healthy marketRather than all of the scaremongoring around, this seems like a well consideration out article A gradual slow down over the next couple of years will be of greater benefit to the majority of populace out there

According to this nothing really happened in the last few weeks so we can carry on borrowing more and more, home prices will go up year on and we will all live happily ever afterSo there is a glut of 2bed flats in Northern England What about South East I saw 12 flats for sale in one small growth, all BTL with or without tennants

Don`t panic, don`t panic Looks similar to fire saleSelect a loan term 12 months (1 year) 24 months (2 existence 36 months (3 existence 48 months (4 existence 60 months (5 existence 72 months (6 existence 84 months (7 existence 96 months (8 existence 108 months (9 existence 120 months (10 years)Please select a type of cover Life cover Home and contents Car Breakdown services Health - checkup Health

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