Logjam may force down property prices by Finance News Bulletin

Published: 20/11/07

The London possessions market is stuck in a logjam that could lead to a sharp fall in prices, land agents have warnedBritish mortgage lenders want us to remove our novel home price crash calculator Read more

The Editor's BlogOver-optimistic sellers are refusing to accept 'too-low' offers, creating a huge gap between asking prices and actual sale valuesThe average occasion a possessions stays on the market in the capital has risen to 87 existence, the longest such period in November for five years, according to figures from possessions website RightmoveWith Christmas nearing, agents warned that homes could stay unsold until the coil unless they are 'priced to sell'

Chris Brown, president-elect of the National friendship of Estate Agents, said: 'Lots of whammies came at the same occasion - the introduction of home information packs, the failure of Northern Rock, the unenthusiastic press about the US sub-prime market They all hit about three months ago That is why it is captivating so long to sell'The only properties that are touching are the ones where a price alteration has been taken into account by the seller

The ones that are hanging around are where the vendor thinks it will be all right on the nighttime - but it won't be'Ed Mead, sales director at Douglas & Gordon, supposed prices in central London were already down about 5%'Whenever marketplace sentiment turns, it always takes about 90 days for vendors to consider it,' he said 'We are in a period where a lot of sellers are still not prepared to believe the earth has changed

'The biggest crash had been on the middle to upper end of the marketplace, with properties over £15m, he addedIt is a dramatic turnaround from only a few months before when buyers were having to make sealed bids for major propertiesPart of the difficulty is that City bonuses are not being spent in advance of Christmas, as they have been in the previous two years, because there is so much uncertainty about what banks will be paying out at the end of the year

Savills found that the amount of City buyers of homes in the £2m-to-4m price group has fallen by a quarter since August In the £1m-to-2m variety, the proportion has dropped by a fifth Tim Le Blanc-Smith of John D Wood said: 'Bonuses are still high-quality but large job losses are expected next spring so most metropolis buyers are remaining in rented somewhere to live until the City settles down'Only the 'super-prime' properties selling for more than £5m seem to have runaway unharmed

At this level, most buyers are wealthy foreigners who are much less exposed to factors such as rising mortgage costsLiam Bailey, head of residential research at Knight Frank, supposed: 'In the early summer we were still in the midst of the strongest sellers' marketplace for 20 years It is now very much a buyers' market Sellers are having to vie much harder and ambitious asking prices are not being achieved

îKnight Frank's figures show the overall central London cost in the day to October rose by more than 34% but last month itself the figure was just 03%, the lowly journal increase since July 2005Mr Bailey said: 'We forecast no more than 3% price rises for next day The exception is for homes at over £5m, which we expect to rise by 8% or more on the back of international demand, particularly from Russia, Kazakhstan and the Middle East

'Rightmove's information shows asking prices in London rose 23% in the past month, suggestive of vendors were still optimistic The biggest borough increase was 85% in Kensington and Chelsea

Miles Shipside of Rightmove supposed: 'We forecast that prices will increase again next day but by only 5% compared with this day's boom The underlying trend is one of a slowing market, with perturbing signs of difficulties in receiving mortgages If sellers don't adjust their price expectations, the figure of sales will fall'Marsha Gray has been trying to put up for sale her one-bedroom flat in Chingford for more than four months

The spacious, ground-floor possessions went on the market for £190,000 in July but has unsuccessful to go despite being reduced in cost since thenMs Gray, 30, an admin manager, bought it for £143,000 in imposing 2005 and determined to sell to move closer to the City 'It's a lovely big space with goodsized accommodation and a garden,' she said 'Everyone who has been to see it has loved it but many couldn't have enough money it

'In September, she instructed her estate agents to inferior the price to £175,000 'It was a bit arrogant to think I'd get £190,000 but at the time I thought it was worth a try, so I was happy to believe less,' said Ms GrayShe received an offer of £175,000 but the prospective purchaser's survey appreciated the property at £9,000 less so the deal fell through Since then, there have been a couple of viewings but no more offers

Ms Gray said: 'I've told the land agents that if I haven't received an offer by Christmas I will pull it off the market and rent it out'Barnes: This three storey accommodation house is in a well-liked and quiet location It has three bedrooms, one with fitted bathroom, a reception room with dining area, kitchen/breakfast room, family bathroom and small rear backyard The failure of this house to sell at the asking cost is the consequence of the cooling-off of the London market as a whole, which began before the new troubles

The owners should have reduced the asking cost for a quick sale before the end of the summerCadogan Square: In the coil, this bend mews would have been sold within days of coming on the market at or above the asking price of £395m But it only came on the marketplace in the middle of September

Since then the credit chomp and City bonus and employment doubts have meant that it is still obtainable through agents Friend & Falcke The house has three large bedspaces, one with ensuite bathspace and dressing space, drawing space, dining space, sitting space with study and kitchen/breakfast spaceHouse prices may be a be anxious Our biggest be anxious is going to be unenployment with the credit crunch start to bite

Homeowners are rapid to believe the excellent gains made over the last 5 years, although they seem to find it hard to believe that those same excellent gains have slipped back just a small For most homeowners it is all relative anywayIt breaks my heart to believe that the Estate Agents commissions are suffering so Then again if Tesco's start advertising houses, it would be most excellent for Estate Agents to get used to disappointment

Will home values fall Of course they will, but as always they will recover, after a healthy bit of price rises reduces everyones debt to managable amountsIn simple terms, few people are trade, but also, if you read the real stats, very few are advertising, if you plan to sell, hold off until the market is a small piece more stable - nothing to do with rates, only to do with press speculation, and rates will create coming down next year anywayAt present most properties are a lot overpriced its time we have a correction to transport down to realistic reasonably priced level so that commonsense prevail

Nobody wins in the finish,I feel sorry for the first time buyersHow long will it take people like Marsha old to realise that renting out her flat will only mean that it may end up worth so much less in a year or so That £166k may look rather high-quality compared to the £135k she might get in the future Still, at least a lower valuation will make the rental yield look better

Log squash, yes Price fall down, no The market will stagnate because only those grateful to sell will accept substantially lower prices - most potential sellers will wait put and just sit it out Of route, this prospect terrifies the estate agents and others who depend upon a brisk deal in properties

Obviously, they will try to encourage sellers to accept inferior offers because they need the charge on the sale Sensible sellers will just ask themselves if they actually need to sell now, rather than wait a year or two It will be like last time round - all those major high street sites at present occupied by estate agents and mortgage brokers will become vacantOr in other words neither are there banks ready to fund the risk of overpriced housing as are there buyers willing to take on the money owing burden

Common sense and finances are starting to set EA's will be strike very hard until sellers accept reality EA's will now help drive the market down to achieve saleschoose a loan term 12 months (1 day 24 months (2 years) 36 months (3 existence 48 months (4 existence 60 months (5 existence 72 months (6 existence 84 months (7 existence 96 months (8 existence 108 months (9 existence 120 months (10 years)Please select a type of insurance Life insurance house and contents Car stop working services Health - medical Health - dental

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